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Full Version: Russia has decisively lost this war - it's over!
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The ongoing struggle with Russia could be classified as both a proxy war, with feet on the ground, and a financial war, with Russia already losing the financial war decisively. Russia's financial situation is in a state of catastrophic collapse, with less than 10 years of stability projected. President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 bet everything on one card. If he conquered Ukraine, he would stop the country’s Westernization and absorb it into a new confederation with Belarus and the Russian Federation. However, with the failure of Russia’s military to take Kyiv scuttled this federation expending project, dashing any illusions of welding Ukraine into a common state organism with Russia and imperiling President Putin’s own legitimacy to rule in Moscow.

The situation has now devolved into a proxy war, with Ukraine vying for territory and Putin attempting to maintain a public image. The Russian state will enter a phase of slow decay. In this variant, nothing happens immediately. There will be no rapid military or political change as Russia’s empire simply enters the next phase of its disintegration. This became particularly evident during the recent mutiny of Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, which marked the first serious rebellion in President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle and one of many new developments in Russia’s internal situation that could acquire significance as stages in a long-term “disintegration” scenario.

The mutiny of Wagner group it exposed the weakness of the Russian president and the authoritarian system he built, revealing hidden fractures in the highest circle of power. In Russian history, waves of change have traditionally been triggered when people perceive the ruler as failing to lead or showing fear – thereby stripping him of his “holy” status. Mr Putin decided to rebuild a third Russian empire under his personal control, using the Soviet inheritance as a model. The polity he created evolved from an authoritarian into a semi-totalitarian state. In the ideological sense, it bundled elements of Tsarist Russian and Soviet tradition. Economically, it depended on exporting natural resources (mainly hydrocarbons) with income streams controlled by a political-military oligarchy largely composed of former members of the security services. That is completely over now. Mr. Putin’s third incarnation of the Russian empire rested on the political and economic domination of nations that had historically been exploited by Moscow. This was the message behind Russia’s military aggression against Georgia and Ukraine.




Turbulence ahead

An old hallmark of Soviet decline – technological backwardness – is also making a comeback. The reimposition of Western sanctions has revealed Russia’s dependence on the outside world and its inability to make do without imported Western technologies. Like the Soviet Union, Russia can make money from oil and gas but finds itself helpless to produce microprocessors. A growing sense of vulnerability creates friction in the ruling camp and encourages infighting among rival interest groups fearful for the empire’s future. Russia’s rulers’ traditional response to such tensions has traditionally been small wars on the imperial borderlands to show that autocratic control remains essential.

There might be efforts in certain areas to emancipate themselves from Kremlin oversight and function independently from the central government's authority, or at least with significantly more autonomy. Under these circumstances, there is a high probability that centrifugal and separatist inclinations may resurface. The South Caucasus is a very vulnerable region that has a substantial risk of falling apart.
All of this is true. Russia is no longer a world power; it is now a third-world country. Russia should know by now that the G7 countries are against its plan to take over and annex Ukraine, and that Putin made a big mistake by not figuring how strong the G7 and NATO would be in response. The US mostly pays for the war with old equipment and is using it as a chance to get newer gear. Ukraine will keep fighting until it can't. For as long as they want to fight, we should keep giving them our gear. In the west, supplies from Russia are being replaced in large amounts.

In Siberia the population is now overwhelmingly Chinese as Putin is forced to import foreign workers to keep up production at a time of labor shortages. Many Russia ethnics are moving to western Russia. Others have been siphoned off for the failed Ukraine invasion.

Russia has lost enough of it's treasure and status to make the cost of some bombed out Ukrainian territory very debatable. Especially considering that they control 11 time zones worth of territory the can't develop already.

The main stream media have made Putin out to be some cartoon villain dictator irrationally slaughtering Ukrainians for no reason. However, Putin is not insane, not a madman. He is carrying out a rational strategy in Ukraine, seizing Russian-speaking territory such as Donbas, demilitarizing by force the eastern Ukraine to bring in more money for his friends. Putin is not making the first moves toward some greater conquest. All the bad takes saying “if we don’t stop Putin now, he’ll invade Moldova/Estonia/Poland/all Europe just like Hitler” ignores the part about the German military in WWII having some 18 million men under arms. The Russian army today has 1.3 million. NATO would crush Russia within days

In 2012, Ukraine learned that it has the 14th largest natural gas supplies in the world, after Australia and Iraq. At the same time, it would become Europe's second oil state, after Russia. Russia didn't care about this much when Ukraine went around Russia like the moon goes around the earth. But when Ukraine started to side with Europe in 2014, it was only a matter of time before the west cut off Russia's gas supply. As a result, Putin and his friends planned to take the gas, food, water, and sea access from Ukraine.